Global stock indices continue to decline as investors are concerned about new US tariff initiatives for the EU countries. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for global indices for 13 March 2025.
US indices forecast: US 30, US 500, US Tech
- Recent data: the US CPI was 2.8% in February
- Market impact: the market may see lower-than-expected inflation as a reason to expect a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut
Fundamental analysis
If the Federal Reserve lowers the key rate, this will be positive for the stock market as lower rates make loans cheaper and increase the availability of capital. Although the data was worse than expected, the core rate (3.1%) is above the target level. The regulator will likely closely monitor it in the future.
Lower rates stimulate the economy, which could boost inflation. While the Federal Reserve fears an uptick in inflation, new figures show that price growth has slowed slightly compared to forecasts.
US 30 technical analysis
The US 30 stock index continues to decline within the downtrend. An upward correction is becoming more likely after such a long series of declines. However, a trend reversal is unlikely. After a support level forms during this correction, the decline will likely continue.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 30 forecast: if the price consolidates below the previously breached support level at 42,370.0, the index could plunge to 40,035.0
- Optimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout above the 42,910.0 resistance level could drive the index to 43,890.0
US 30 technical analysis
US 500 technical analysis
The US 500 stock index continues to fall after a minor correction. The downtrend has become medium-term, with the current support level of 5,530.0 likely to be breached.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 5,530.0 support level could push the index down to 5,395.0
- Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 5,785.0 resistance level could propel the index to 5,960.0
US 500 technical analysis
US Tech technical analysis
The US Tech index continues its upward correction, but the downtrend is still strong. A sideways channel could form. However, the price will highly likely break below it within the downtrend.
The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:
- Pessimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout below the 19,115.0 support level could send the index down to 18,405.0
- Optimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout above the 20,240.0 resistance level could boost the index to 21,465.0
US Tech technical analysis
Asian index forecast: JP 225
- Recent data: Japan’s GDP rose by 2.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024
- Market impact: moderate GDP growth is typically considered a supportive factor for the stock market
Fundamental analysis
The Bank of Japan may take into account the pace of economic growth when deciding on future monetary policy. If the growth rates are lower than expected, this could be an argument in favour of further (or stronger) stimulus measures, which will support the stock market in the long term.
Japan’s Q4 2024 GDP data shows continued economic growth, but it was slightly weaker than expected. This could be a moderately positive signal (the economy is still expanding) for the stock market. However, falling short of the forecast could cause a slight negative reaction in the short term.
JP 225 technical analysis
The JP 225 stock index rebounded from a strong support level at 36,260.0, which will highly likely be breached. Otherwise, a sideways channel will form.
The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:
- Pessimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout below the 36,260.0 support level could push the index down to 35,115.0
- Optimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout above the 38,485.0 resistance level could propel the index to 39,625.0
JP 225 technical analysis
European index forecast: DE 40
- Recent data: Germany’s trade balance was 16 billion EUR in January
- Market impact: exporters’ stocks may come under pressure
Fundamental analysis
Companies focused on foreign markets may suffer when exports fall. A decline in the surplus may cause investors to be cautious about these shares. Unfulfilled expectations (16 billion EUR instead of 21 billion EUR) could cause a short-term negative sentiment in the stock market.
A significantly smaller-than-expected trade surplus may lead to a short-term negative reaction in the German stock market, especially in export-oriented sectors. The further impact on stock prices will depend on a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In particular, investors will focus on the future US tariff policy regarding the EU. According to the German central bank’s chief, US tariffs on EU goods could push Germany into a recession this year.
DE 40 technical analysis
The DE 40 stock index continues to move in an uptrend, facing an active struggle between bulls and bears for a crucial resistance level, with the potential for further growth remaining significant.
The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:
- Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 22,380.0 support level could send the index down to 21,800.0
- Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 23,315.0 resistance level could drive the index to 23,670.0
DE 40 technical analysis
Summary
Among US stock indices, the US 30 is the only one to continue to decline, while the others are undergoing a correction, forming support levels. If the Japanese JP 225 halts its decline, its quotes could form a sideways channel. The DE 40 index is the only one to maintain the growth potential.
